Probability Of Starting Poker Hands

The poker odds calculators on CardPlayer.com let you run any scenario that you see at the poker table, see your odds and outs, and cover the math of winning and losing poker hands. Texas Hold'em Omaha. The odds of flopping a straight flush are anywhere from about 5,000-20,000 to 1 depending on how closely gapped your cards are. The 10-J you mentioned is the most likely starting hand to hit a straight flush at about 5,000 to 1.

Now that you understand the position concept we are going to expand on that by looking at the subject of which starting hands to play and which to throw in the muck.

This is the area where inexperienced players become fish, simply by not having the ability to fold weak hands before the flop. You can save a lot of money at this stage of the hand just by simply choosing not to play.

Starting

The Importance of Starting Hand Selection

As you know Poker is a game of maths and probability. It is therefore possible to know which starting hands are most probable to win a hand and this has been statistically proven in many studies. These studies have been able to rank starting hands according to how likely they are to win the hand against a random selection of opponent’s starting hands.

Starting hand

By Starting Hand we mean the two hole cards which are dealt to you at the start of each hand.

Since we now know which are the best starting hands in poker then we can apply this knowledge to our strategy. Remember, when we play a hand, we want to play with the odds in our favour, and by selectively choosing which starting hands we play we can ensure this.

Of course if we just waited for the two or three best poker starting hands then we wouldn’t actually play many hands as the probability of these cards being dealt is only once in a while.

So we combine the position concept with our starting hand concept, to allow us to only play a narrow starting hand selection when out of position and to play a wider range of starting hands when we are in position. Therefore the benefit of playing in position makes up for the weaker starting hands we may play.

Starting Hand Groups

You could look at all the statistical information and studies, but we’ve taken all the work out of it for you. The following section is a key part of your strategy and you should practise choosing the right action before the flop using the poker starting hands chart below.

We have chosen 46 different hands that we will play depending on the position and situation we are in. Those 46 hands have been separated into 8 groups named Group A to H. Group A are the strongest hands in poker based on the statistics and group H are the weakest hands that we are willing to play. Of course there are many more hand combinations weaker than the hands in Group H, but we are not interested in playing with these and they will be folded into the muck straight away.

Group B

AK

QQ

Group D

AQs

AQ

AJs

99

88

Group F

AT

KQ

KJs

QJs

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44

33

22

Group H

KJ

KT

Poker Hands Probability Chart

QJ

J8s

T8s

87s

76s

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The ‘s’ next to some of the hands stands for Suited, so two cards of the same suit. ‘AJs’ could stand for A J whereas ‘AJ’ could stand for A J

Take a minute just to browse the hands in each group, you don’t need to memorise these, as you can use the chart to refer to, and once you have used it for a while, you will start to remember which hands are in which groups.

Poker Starting Hand Charts

Ok, so now we have our selection of 46 hands, and have split them into 8 groups based on strength, now what? Well we won’t just automatically play any of those 46 hands when they are dealt to us, we will make a decision based on the position we are in, and the situation we are faced with at the table.

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When we are in position we will play a wider range of groups and out of position we will only play the stronger groups. Similarly when opponents have shown strength at the table by raising we will only play the better cards against them.

There are three charts, UNRAISED, RAISED and BLINDS. These are our Action charts, and show us what action to take when we have a hand in one of the starting hand groups.

The three charts are:

  • UNRAISED – When everybody acting before you has either folded or called the big blind.
  • RAISED – When somebody acting before you has raised.
  • BLINDS – When you are in either the small blind or the big blind position and somebody acting before you has raised
UNRAISED
Everybody acting before you has either Folded or Called the Big Blind
ActionEarly PositionMid PositionLate Position
Opening RaiseA B C DA B C D EA B C D E F
Call a Re-RaiseB CCC D
Raise a Re-RaiseAA BA B
Call the Big Blind (if Multiway Pot)F GG H
RAISED
Someone acting before you has Raised already
ActionEarly PositionMid PositionLate Position
Re-RaiseA BA BA B
CallCCC D
BLINDS
After a Raise and You are in the Blinds
ActionRaised from Early PositionRaise from Mid PositionRaised from Late Position
Unraised Blinds – Play as if you were in Late Position in the Unraised chart
Re-RaiseAA B CA B C D
CallB C DD EE F

To use the charts, just follow these steps:

  1. What group is your starting hand in? if it isn’t in any group then you Fold.
  2. What Situation are you in? Choose one of the three action charts relevant to the situation you are in.
  3. What Position are you in? Look at the column in the chart for the position you are in.
  4. Starting Hand Group not shown? If your starting hand group is not shown in that column, then you Fold.
  5. Starting Hand Group Shown? If your starting hand group letter is shown then take the action the chart is showing you.

The different actions in each of the charts are:

  • Opening Raise – Make the first Raise
  • Call – Just Call when a person has Raised
  • Re-Raise – Re-Raise a person who has Raised
  • Call a Re-Raise – Call when someone Re-Raises your original Raise
  • Raise a Re-Raise – Re-Raise when somebody has Re-Raised your original Raise
  • Call the Big Blind – Just call the big blind amount (also known as ‘limping in’)

Quick Reference

I don’t expect you to memorise all the starting hand groups and action charts. The way to learn them is by putting them into practise and then over time you will start to memorise them. But to start with, you can refer to the charts while you are playing.

You can either just bookmark and pull this page up each time you play or we have a couple of other methods to make your life a bit easier.

Printable Starting Hands Chart

A neat and tidy, A4 size starting hand chart which you can print and keep in front of you for quick reference while you are playing.

To download the Starting Hands Chart right click on the link and select save target as.

It is a PDF file, so to view and print this you will need the free Adobe Acrobat Reader. If you don’t have this you can download it here.

Starting Hands Chart Desktop Wallpaper

https://labelomg.netlify.app/cool-cat-casino-mobile-codes.html. Use this as your computer desktop wallpaper. It is designed so that whilst you are playing poker, you can place your poker table window over the Poker Professor logo and all the charts will be visible around the table. Neat huh!

To download the Starting Hands Wallpaper right click on the link and select save target as.

To set as your desktop wallpaper, right click on the file you have just downloaded and select “Set As Desktop Background”.

The wallpaper is optimised for a desktop screen size of 1920×1080 as this is the most common. It should work with most other desktop sizes as well as windows should automatically resize it for you.

Starting Hand Examples

Lets take a look at some example starting hands and walk through what the charts are telling you to do and what thought process to follow.

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Example Hand 1

You are sitting in early position and are dealt A J. You are first to act and so nobody has bet before you.

  • What group is my hand in – AJ is a Group E hand
  • What situation am I in – Nobody has raised before me so UNRAISED
  • What position am I in – Early Position

So from the answers to the above questions we look at the UNRAISED Action chart, and look in the column for Early Position. You will see that Group E is not shown in that column so we are not allowed to play a Group E hand in Early position in this situation and so we would fold this hand.

Example Hand 2

You are sitting in early position and are dealt A K. You are first to act and so nobody has bet before you.

  • What group is my hand in – AK is a Group B hand
  • What situation am I in – I am first to act so it is UNRAISED
  • What position am I in – Early Position

So from the above we look at the UNRAISED Action chart, and look in the column for Early Position. You will see that with a group B hand we are told to make an opening raise. So we would enter the hand by making a Raise (We will look at details of how much to raise later in the lesson).

Poker probability formulas

Example Hand 3

You are sitting in Mid Position and are dealt A A. A Player in early position has raised the pot up to 3 times the Big Blind.

  • What group is my hand in – AA is the best starting hand and therefore a Group A hand
  • What situation am I in – There has been a raise by a player in early position, so it has been RAISED
  • What position am I in – Mid Position

So, we look at the RAISED Action chart, and look in the column for Mid Position. You will see that with a group A hand we are told to make a Re-Raise. So we would enter the hand by making a Re-Raise. (We will look at details of how much to raise later in the lesson)

Example Hand 4

You are sitting in Mid Position and are dealt 9 9. A Player in early position has raised the pot up to 3 times the Big Blind.

  • What group is my hand in – 99 is a Group D hand
  • What situation am I in – There has been a raise by a player in early position, so it has been RAISED
  • What position am I in – Mid Position

Poker Hands Probability Wiki

So, again we look at the RAISED Action chart, and look in the column for Mid Position. You will see that we are not allowed to play an already RAISED pot in Mid Position with a group D hand. So we fold this hand.

Example Hand 5

You are sitting in Late Position and are dealt 8 7. Two Players acting before you have limped in and called the big blind.

  • What group is my hand in – 87s is a Group H hand
  • What situation am I in – There has been two limpers, but no raise, so it is UNRAISED
  • What position am I in – Late Position

So, we look at the UNRAISED Action chart, and look in the column for Late Position. You will see that we are allowed to Call a Multi-way pot with a group H hand (multiple players playing the hand). As two people have already called and the blinds will likely also call we can call the big blind and play the hand. So we would call the big blind on this hand.

How much should I Raise?

An opening Raise in general should be between 3 to 4 times the Big Blind. Anywhere in this range is ok, and as guide to start with I would raise the following amounts:

Probabilities Of Poker Hands

  • When you are in EARLY POSITION Raise 4 times the Big Blind
  • When you are in MID POSITION Raise 3.5 times the Big Blind
  • When you are in LATE POSITION Raise 3 times the Big Blind

You should mix and match the size of your raises to prevent your opponents getting a read on your betting patterns, but the above can act as a general guide whilst you get used to your new strategy.

The reason to Raise more in Early position is because we are out of position and want to put as much pressure on our opponents as we can.

How much should I Re-Raise?

A Re-Raise should in general be between 2 – 4 times the original Raise, As a guide:

  • When it has been Raised from EARLY POSITION Raise 2 times the Raise
  • When it has been Raised from MID POSITION Raise 3 times the Raise
  • When it has been Raised from LATE POSITION Raise 4 times the Raise

The reason for this is it is more likely that a player in late position has raised with a weaker hand than a player in Early position.

Practise Time

Well, that was a lengthy lesson and a lot to take in. Don’t worry, with practise it will start to become second nature, and that is exactly what you should do now with the first stage of your bankroll challenge.

Calculating Probability Of Poker Hands

Poker Bankroll Challenge: Stage 1

Poker hand probability calculator
  • Stakes: $0.02/$0.04
  • Buy In: $3 (75 x BB)
  • Starting Bankroll: $25
  • Target: $3 (1 x Buy In)
  • Finishing Bankroll: $28
  • Estimated Sessions: 1

Use this exercise to get used to selecting which starting hands to play and which not to play according to the Starting Hands chart and get used to understanding what position you are in at the table. Don’t get too carried away at this stage though, play conservatively and be aware that someone may have a better hand than you. We are going to learn in more detail about betting after the flop later in the course.

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Playing Texas hold’em, you have been dealt two holecards. Now you must make the most important decision: whether or not to invest in this starting-hand. I always teach my seniors poker classes to use the Hold’em Algorithm. That makes the decision much easier – and less stressful.

I thought our readers might be interested in the odds against being dealt the best possible starting-hands. Mike Caro’s Hold’em Starting Hand Distribution Chart is described in his book, “Caro’s Most Profitable Hold’em Advice” (Cardoza Publishing; www.cardozapub.com).

The 20 best starting-hands in sequence are in the box to the right. Caro presents the odds against being dealt each of these hands, or a better hand. I will add my assessment of these three main groupings.

The odds shown refer to the probability (likelihood) of being dealt those holecards – or better. For example, you can expect pocket Aces, pocket Kings, or pocket Queens in the hole, once every 73 hands dealt. With 30-35 hands dealt per hour that will occur (on average) about once every two hours of play. Patience!

It is noteworthy that all of the 20 best holecards listed satisfy the Hold’em Algorithm criteria for all positions, including early position; and hence are playable preflop. Caro’s chart goes well beyond these first 20 to all 169 possible different starting-hands. There are many other playable combinations depending on position and other factors. Rather than trying to memorize these, it’s so much easier to use the Hold’em Algorithm, and quickly add up, in your head, the score for your holecards to easily decide if they are playable.

I regard the top three – A-A, K-K, and Q-Q – as “made hands” preflop. They could win the pot even without further improvement. Playing these preflop, your best action is to raise to thin the field to (preferably) three opponents staying to see the flop with you. (More than three opponents would make your A-A an underdog.)

Probability Of A Pair In Poker

The next nine listed (J-J down to A-J suited) are “semi-made hands.” With luck, they might survive to take the pot; but more likely they need to improve. It’s best to play cautiously until your hand improves enough to warrant getting aggressive or deceptive to build “your” pot.

Poker Probability Formulas

The last 10 hands (A-10 suited, down to Q-J suited) are “premium drawing hands.” Almost certainly, they must improve to win the pot. Usually, it’s best to limp along, hoping for a multiway pot (three or more opponents staying to see the flop) with no raising (the minimum investment for you). If the flop doesn’t help this hand consider mucking those holecards. (The same applies to other playable drawing hands that satisfy the Hold’em Algorithm before the flop.)

A Short Cut

For those unsuited holecards not listed in the chart, when there is one honor card among your two holecards, an easy way to make your play-or-fold decision is to use the Hi-Lo concept: One honor card and one low card – 7 down to 2. Such hands are best mucked unless you are one of the blinds, and there are no raises.

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